Ukrainian forces have advanced more than 8.5 kilometers toward Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk region over three weeks of offensive operations. According to military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets, Ukrainian troops have liberated the villages of Perebudova, Komar and Fedorivka and are continuing their advance at the junction of two Russian military groupings.
Mashovets, a military analyst with the Information Resistance group, reported the developments in his assessment of the situation on the front line.
According to his information, the main fighting is taking place south of the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk road, along the Mokri Yaly River. Ukrainian units have expanded their bridgehead in this area and pushed Russian forces out of several positions.
Mashovets noted that Ukrainian assault groups advanced along both banks of the river. As a result, Russian units lost control of Fedorivka, Perebudova and Komar, although some Russian positions remain near the latter two villages.
According to the analyst, Ukrainian forces have liberated a substantial area of the Donetsk region around the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Zaporizhzhia, Fedorivka and Shevchenko.
Russian forces attempt to halt Ukraine’s advance
Mashovets explained that the Ukrainian offensive is taking place at the junction of the operational zones of Russia’s Center and East force groupings.
Russian commanders are attempting to hold their positions using the 29th Combined Arms Army and elements of the 90th Tank Division.
However, the situation varies across different sections of the front.
North of the Zaporizhzhia–Donetsk road, Russian forces have largely managed to stabilize their positions, according to the analyst. Further south, toward Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian troops continue offensive operations.
Near Novopavlivka, Russian units are also attempting to advance in small assault groups but have made no significant gains.
Mashovets said Ukrainian forces are holding positions east of Novopavlivka and repelling Russian counterattacks.
Why the offensive near Velyka Novosilka matters
According to Mashovets, Ukrainian commanders have gradually concentrated their offensive efforts on a narrower section of the front, around Perebudova, Komar and Fedorivka. Elsewhere, Ukrainian units have largely focused on consolidating their positions.
The analyst believes that further Ukrainian advances could create serious problems for Russian commanders.
Russia’s East grouping continues offensive operations toward Huliaipole and Orikhiv, while the Center grouping is attacking toward Dobropillia.
To support these operations, Russian commanders have concentrated substantial forces on the opposite flanks of the two groupings.
If Ukrainian troops continue advancing at the junction between them, Russian forces may have to redeploy additional units from the sectors where they are currently conducting offensive operations, Mashovets believes.
This could potentially weaken Russia’s offensive capabilities in both the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.
However, the analyst emphasized that such a scenario depends on Ukrainian forces’ ability to sustain their offensive and build on their gains.
Ukrainian forces may have advanced toward Burlatske
In a separate update to his assessment, Mashovets said the Ukrainian command had apparently decided to continue offensive operations in the Velyka Novosilka sector.
According to his preliminary information, Ukrainian units may have entered the village of Burlatske, approximately 6.5–6.7 kilometers from Velyka Novosilka.
The analyst also reported that Ukrainian forces had advanced east of Perebudova.
These latest changes to the front line have not yet been independently confirmed.
