Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine are forcing the Russian military command to urgently redeploy elite units and could disrupt Moscow’s plans for a spring offensive.
This is stated in a new report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to analysts, the Russian command has redeployed elements of the 68th Army Corps from the Pokrovsk and Dobropillya areas to the Hulyaipole direction, which includes parts of eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and southern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The redeployed units reportedly include elements of the 39th Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1472nd Motorized Rifle Regiment. Geolocated footage also indicates the presence of Russian forces south of Hirke, west of Hulyaipole.
Russia has also reportedly redeployed Pacific Fleet naval infantry units to the southern front, including elements of the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 55th Naval Infantry Division.
In addition, elements of Russia’s 76th Airborne Division, including units of the 104th, 234th and 237th regiments, were moved to the Zaporizhia direction in January and February 2026.
ISW analysts note that the redeployment may have been part of Russian plans to continue offensive operations toward Orikhiv and Hulyaipole during the spring and summer of 2026. However, Ukrainian counterattacks that began in late January and early February likely disrupted those plans.
The analysts emphasize that Russia’s need to redeploy forces across different sectors of the front highlights the challenges the Russian command faces in attempting to conduct simultaneous offensive operations.
According to ISW, this situation could complicate Russia’s plans for a potential spring–summer offensive against Ukraine’s so-called “Fortress Belt,” a line of heavily fortified cities including Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka.