Russia may offer the US a “plan to divide Ukraine”

The Russian Ministry of Defense has developed a plan for the military and political development of the world until 2045, which includes the elimination of Ukraine as an independent state and its division into three parts. 

Moscow may propose this plan to the new US administration through diplomatic channels, Interfax-Ukraine reports, citing sources in the intelligence community.

The plan for the division of Ukraine includes

1. Complete “accession of new regions” to Russia. These are the temporarily occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson regions and Crimea. Moscow is currently focused on implementing this point.
2. Creation of a “pro-Russian state”. This refers to the creation of a puppet state with pro-Russian authorities in the territories of central and southern Ukraine (in particular, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odesa regions). Such a “state” would have to refuse integration with the EU and NATO and accept Russia’s military presence on the model of Transnistria or Abkhazia.
3. Division of Ukraine’s western territories. Russia plans to designate Volyn, Lviv, Zakarpattia, and other western regions as “disputed territories” that could be divided between Poland, Hungary, and Romania.

Four scenarios of international development

Negative for Russia:

• US and Western dominance. Strengthening of the Western coalition and global weakening of Russia.
• China’s leadership. China’s geopolitical rise and shifting centers of power.

Favorable for Russia:

• A “multipolar world” with the division of spheres of influence. The Kremlin’s ability to consolidate its victory through agreements with key actors.
• Regionalization or chaos. Decreased global coordination and the emergence of individual regional leaders.