In 2025, Ukraine and Russia may begin negotiations due to US pressure and a shortage of weapons and funding
The Economist writes about it.
Analysts of the publication suggest that active hostilities between Ukraine and Russia may end in 2025. Under the pressure of depletion of resources on both sides, as well as due to changes in political priorities in the United States, a “semi-frozen conflict” may emerge.
The article notes that the struggle in the US Congress in early 2024 has already suspended funding for Ukraine for several months. The $61 billion aid package approved by then is likely to be exhausted by 2025.
The United States is facing a reduction in the stock of military equipment needed by Ukraine and is forced to allocate resources among other priorities, including support for Israel and Taiwan. In Europe, the situation is even more complicated: insufficient development of defense production does not allow Ukraine to meet its needs.
Although Ukraine continues to develop its own defense industry, particularly in the field of drone production, this will not be enough to compensate for the reduction in Western aid.
The publication predicts that in 2025, the United States may increase pressure on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. This is likely to include territorial concessions from Ukraine. It is pointed out that Crimea and eastern Donbas, occupied by Russia in 2014, are unlikely to return to Kyiv’s control. Also, some of the territories seized after 2022 may remain part of the Russian Federation.
In exchange for this, Ukraine could receive security guarantees, among which NATO membership would be an ideal option. However, with Donald Trump returning to power, the prospects of Ukraine joining the Alliance are becoming unlikely, although other forms of guarantees are still possible.
The Economist suggests that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could begin in 2025. This will be accompanied by a decrease in the intensity of hostilities, up to a ceasefire. The format of such a conflict may resemble a “half-frozen” one.