Gasoline prices in Russia have been hitting record highs for the third week in a row, ranking among the fastest-growing consumer goods, according to Rosstat. The pace of fuel inflation is now outstripping overall consumer price growth, while several regions — from Primorye to the occupied Crimean and Zaporizhzhia territories — are reporting supply disruptions.
Analysts point to a combination of factors: scheduled maintenance at refineries, unplanned shutdowns following drone attacks, seasonal demand from the agricultural sector during harvest and sowing, and increased pressure on road transport as the aviation sector struggles.
At the St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange, wholesale gasoline prices have jumped more than 35% since the beginning of the year. Retail has followed suit: in Moscow, prices rose by an average of three rubles per liter, while in some regions the spike has been far sharper. In Buryatia, for example, gasoline went up by nine rubles overnight, prompting an inquiry from the Federal Antimonopoly Service.
Despite the rapid increases, experts are hesitant to call it a “crisis.” “Such spikes occur almost every year, though this time they were amplified by several overlapping factors,” said independent analyst Anton Sokolov.
He notes that the prospects for stabilization largely depend on the development of exchange-based trading, which helps redistribute fuel supplies across regions. However, building long-term reserves remains difficult amid the ongoing threat of drone strikes on infrastructure — with both refineries and storage depots still vulnerable.
The Russian government has sought to curb price growth by imposing a temporary ban on gasoline exports. Yet even local experts admit the effect of such measures is “limited.”
In the long term, the trajectory appears unchanged: gasoline prices in Russia have been rising almost every year since 1991, with only a single year of decline. Analysts argue the current surge is simply pushing the market toward “the broader European level,” where cheaper fuel is typically found only in places like Venezuela or Saudi Arabia.