Russia is considering the possibility of direct military confrontation with Europe as part of its conflict scenarios through 2045. Six of these scenarios concern Northern Europe, while Moscow is also actively developing plans involving Poland and the Baltic states.
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia’s main objective in Europe is currently to weaken support for Ukraine while keeping risks to itself as low as possible. To achieve this, Moscow employs hybrid tactics, including sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, influence operations, espionage and drone incursions into European airspace.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine reports that nearly 400 Russian intelligence operatives are present in Europe. Their activities allow Moscow to test the limits of what it can do while avoiding actions that could trigger a collective NATO response.
At the same time, Russia has not abandoned the possibility of direct military conflict with European countries.
“Moscow considers it one of the scenarios for military conflicts through 2045. Six of these involve Northern Europe. Scenarios concerning Poland and the Baltic states are also being actively developed,” Ukrainian intelligence officials said.
The Foreign Intelligence Service identifies a controlled regional crisis on NATO’s eastern flank as one possible tool the Kremlin could use. According to Russian assessments, the Baltic states are among the most vulnerable elements of European security.
“The goal is not to defeat NATO militarily, but to demonstrate its alleged inability to respond quickly and collectively defend its members,” the intelligence service explained.
Ukrainian intelligence emphasizes that Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation with the West, in which the war against Ukraine and threats to European security are closely interconnected.
